By now, it's safe to say 2024 has been another ordinary year for Hobart property.
The median dwelling price in the Tasmanian capital dropped 1% through the twelve months to November, according to CoreLogic data. That came on the back of a decline of around 3% in 2023. Hobart prices have now fallen more than 12% from their peak in March 2022.
This might sound like time to swoop in before things start to pick back up. Though, Samuel Powell, lead analyst at Hello Haus buyer's agency, believes buyers should proceed with caution.
"Other markets offer more favourable metrics for growth than Tasmania," he told Savings.com.au.
Nevertheless, he and our other expert contributor have identified several potential bright spots in Hobart that could be poised for significant growth in the near future.
All price data from Realestate.com.au, current to November 2024
Moonah (7009)
| Property Type | Median Price (November 2024) | Annual Growth | Median Weekly Rent (November 2024) | Annual Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houses | $628,000 | 4.6% | $527 | -4.1% |
| Units | $450,000 | 3.2% | $440 | -2.2% |
Investorkit senior analyst Junge Ma agrees there are 'market challenges' in Hobart.
"Most suburbs continue to experience market pressure relief and price decline," she told Savings.com.au.
"Our selected suburbs are located in the north-east and north-west regions, characterised by either low supply or affordable prices that help counteract market challenges."
One example is Moonah, north-east of the CBD towards Glenorchy. Moonah bucked the trend last year to see prices increase for both units and houses, and Ms Ma says it could be another standout performer in 2025.
"Moonah house prices … are demonstrating strong resilience compared to many other suburbs in the city," she said.
"Housing inventory is now at a balanced level of 2.9 months, slightly lower than this time last year."
Geilston Bay (7015)
| Property Type | Median Price (November 2024) | Annual Growth | Median Weekly Rent (November 2024) | Annual Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houses | $723,000 | 1.0% | $582 | 4.0% |
| Units | $537,000 | -10.5% | $580 | -3.3% |
Just across the Derwent river from Moonah is Geilston Bay, another pick from Investorkit. Not atypical for Hobart property, house prices in Geilston Bay peaked at $770,000 in June 2022 before declining steadily to below $700,000 earlier this year. In the second half of 2024, though, things picked up significantly – house prices have grown more than 5% from August.
Ms Ma says this growth was partly driven by a sharp decrease in supply.
"Stock on market has dropped by over 30% over the past year … there’s only 1.1 months worth of stock available," she explained.
According to HtAG analytics, inventory levels of three months or less present good ROI opportunities for property investors.
Rokeby (7019)
| Property Type | Median Price (November 2024) | Annual Growth | Median Weekly Rent (November 2024) | Annual Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houses | $600,000 | 2.2% | $510 | 6.3% |
| Units | $607,000 | 1.2% | $530 | 1.9% |
Rokeby is another suburb on the eastern shore of the Derwent. It also bucked the trend in 2024, with both house and unit prices growing.
Ms Ma noted the shift in supply-demand dynamic experienced by the Rokeby rental market in 2024.
"The vacancy rate has fallen sharply from 1.4% in 2023 to an exceptionally low 0.2%," Ms Ma said.
"This tightening rental market is expected to drive rents higher and shift additional demand toward the sales market."
Rokeby is also notable for its average unit price being higher than its average house price over the past twelve months. This could be a quirk of the specific properties sold in that time given it’s a small sample size.
However, according to research from Hotspotting, Hobart is the capital city with the smallest gap between house and unit prices (23%), so this data might be an accurate representation.
New Norfolk (7140)
| Property Type | Median Price (November 2024) | Annual Growth | Median Weekly Rent (November 2024) | Annual Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houses | $463,000 | 0.3% | $450 | 1.1% |
| Units | $415,000 | -7.8% | $392 | -8.7% |
New Norfolk is the furthest suburb from the Hobart CBD to make this list, being about 35 kilometres north-east. Accordingly, it’s also the most affordable.
Established in 1807, it’s one of the oldest settlements in Tasmania.
The median house price is $463,000, representing just two thirds of the Hobart median. After a notable annual decline in unit prices, those in New Norfolk are now around 22% cheaper than the Hobart median.
Ms Ma says New Norfolk is another suburb where the tight rental market could feed through to demand to buy, not to mention a strong yield for investors.
"Rental yields are strong at 5.2% and the vacancy rate has dropped sharply to just 0.3%," she said.
Blackmans Bay (7052)
| Property Type | Median Price (November 2024) | Annual Growth | Median Weekly Rent (November 2024) | Annual Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houses | $895,000 | 9.1% | $595 | 8.2% |
| Units | $579,000 | -12.3% | $485 | -6.7% |
Blackmans Bay, roughly a 20-minute drive south from the Hobart CBD, was one of two suburbs that fit Hello Haus' criteria for suburbs that could see growth in excess of 5% in 2025.
"We prioritise high-confidence data areas that demonstrate strong affordability, low supply levels, and growing demand metrics," Mr Powell explained.
Blackmans Bay has a decent rental yield (3.67%) and strong socioeconomic indicators suggest it's an attractive place to live. Mr Powell also highlighted a supply-demand imbalance that could point to price growth.
"There’s low stock on market and low inventory … properties are selling relatively quickly [32 days on market]," he told Savings.com.au.
You’ll notice a fairly big discrepancy between house and unit prices – houses became 9.1% more expensive throughout 2024 while unit values dropped 12.3%. This means there’s a 35% gap between the pair – much greater than the Hobart average. You could infer there might be bargains available in the Blackmans Bay unit market, although given the distance from the city, it would probably pay to be cautious.
Midway Point (7171)
| Property Type | Median Price (November 2024) | Annual Growth | Median Weekly Rent (November 2024) | Annual Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houses | $595,000 | -5.6% | $535 | -2.7% |
| Units | $488,000* | - | $460 | 2.2% |
Midway Point was the other pick from Hello Haus. There are a few bodies of water between it and the CBD, but the Tasman Highway cuts straight across, making the drive surprisingly short.
House prices in the suburb dropped more than 5% in 2024, potentially making it seem a strange pick, but Mr Powell says the market conditions are "opportune."
"This is reflected in low stock and inventory levels … favourable socioeconomic ranking indicates desirability," he explained.
*Price data up to October 2024
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