Research headed by University of South Australia Professor Chris Leishman found the Coalition's proposal could increase prices between 7.4% and 10.3%.
As it stands that would mean the national median price would increase by between $60,384 and $84,864 (between $876,384 and $900,864).
The study was commissioned by the Super Members Council so there might be questions about its independence, but the findings echo warnings from other economists as well as Housing Minister Clare O'Neil.
Mr Leishman said he was "very confident" in concluding the policy proposal would be inflationary and said this was an "uncontroversial finding".
"If you add demand to an inelastic market, prices are going to rise, with the unintended consequences of making housing less affordable," he said.
However, Shadow Housing Minister Angus Taylor told the Savings Tip Jar podcast that the Coalition's other housing proposals could more than offset the extra demand.
"The important thing is to [also] be adding supply and to be taking away other demand that's not necessary at this time," he said.
"We have critical policies for that - number one is a $5 billion fund to break those infrastructure bottlenecks... we do think that foreign investment demand and a record rate of immigration... is adding to that demand.
"If we can release that demand and add to supply, we think it's fine to be giving people more choice about how they use their superannuation."
What is the super homebuyer scheme?
The Super Home Buyer Scheme would allow first home buyers to access the lower of $50,000 or 40% of their superannuation to go towards buying property.
Participants would need to be an owner occupier for at least a year, provide a 5% deposit excluding the amount from super, and return the withdrawn funds (including any proportional capital gains or losses) once they sell.
"We know that the best indicator of whether someone's going to have a good retirement isn't just the superannuation they've got, but whether they own a home," Mr Taylor told the podcast.
However, the government says all the proposal would do is effectively raise prices by the amount they are allowed to withdraw.
"What we would also be doing is taking that money that young people are saving for their retirement and largely giving it to [sellers] who already had a lot of housing," Housing Minister Clare O'Neil told the podcast in late-2024.
How much would prices increase?
If this research is to be believed, here's how the price increase would look in each capital city, based on the most recent CoreLogic Home Value Index (HVI):
| City | Median dwelling price (February 2025) | Potential median price after two years |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | $1,186,000 | $1,274,000-$1,308,000 |
| Melbourne | $773,000 | $830,000-$853,000 |
| Brisbane | $894,000 | $960,000-$986,000 |
| Adelaide | $822,000 | $883,000-$907,000 |
| Perth | $808,000 | $868,000-$891,000 |
| Hobart | $662,000 | $711,000-$730,000 |
| Darwin | $507,000 | $545,000-$559,000 |
| Canberra | $847,000 | $910,000-$934,000 |
The national median property price has increased by around 14% over the past two years without such a scheme in place.
Is this modelling accurate?
The Leishman modelling was based on an econometric model of the decisions prospective home buyers have made in the past to estimate the increase in demand.
There were two different models - the first found potential increases of between 7.4% and 8.1% while the second estimate was between 10% and 10.3%.
Professor Leishman said the "close range of estimates" despite using different methodologies and data as evidence means he is "very confident" in the findings.
These estimates are also backed up by the surge in prices in New Zealand beginning in 2010 after the similar KiwiSaver scheme was introduced.
The 10 years to June 2010 saw dwelling prices in New Zealand increase by an average of 7.6% per year, then 9.2% during the subsequent decade with KiwiSaver withdrawals.
However, as Mr Taylor pointed out the Super Homebuyer Scheme will be introduced in conjunction with other measures to curb demand and boost supply, which might mitigate these potential price increases.
Picture by Pat Whelen on Unsplash
Ready, Set, Buy!
Learn everything you need to know about buying property – from choosing the right property and home loan, to the purchasing process, tips to save money and more!
With bonus Q&A sheet and Crossword!
Harry O'Sullivan
Harrison Astbury
William Jolly
