APRA announcement will affect first home buyers the most.
This year's APRA announcement will continue to see a sharp decrease for first home buyers with the market being ‘out of reach’ for them. ABS data shows that the number of new loan commitments for first home buyers fell in September 2021 for the eighth consecutive month. As a result, they are now down -27.1% compared to the same time last year. Interestingly, the data shows that at the same time as this happened, investor loans rose 83.2%.
Those first home buyers that are able to still get into the market will have to turn back to apartments (i.e. strata instead of Torrens titled). Otherwise, they risk renting for the longer term as the disparity between apartment and house price increases have been significant.
Banks will also tighten the reins on their own accord.
Serviceability expectations will be tightened and reigned-in to counter the rising risks in home lending. This also weighs on the responsibility of the mortgage brokers to gently guide the clients in the right direction of their borrowing capacity that relates to the banking rules and guidelines.
Return of student and skilled labour immigration will see more apartments sold and rented in the inner city again.
Vacant apartments targeted to this market, which have been sitting idle during the pandemic, will now be snapped up again as we see the return of overseas students. As we see the population increase again, we will see more buzz around the apartment market, specifically in university areas.
Likewise, as we see the rise in skilled labour immigration, the general property choices are also apartments with easy access to transport, schooling and general amenities. Affordability certainly plays a factor in this, as well as a typical higher level of acceptance for apartment living from overseas immigrants.
Expats will continue to buy up big and return home.
I predicted this one last year and it still rings true for 2022. Except - 2022 will have less uncertainty and the fact that they are more comfortable with virtual buying means we will see even more expats return home.
Further increase in supply will thin out the buyer pool.
As vendors will look to capitalise on the huge amount of growth over the last 18 months, more listings will mean more choice for buyers and a relatively slower incline in further price rises. Buyers will be able to be much more discerning, and not jump into the wrong property too quickly without doing their due diligence.
Also, people won’t buy into the FOMO hype in 2022. We will be better at doing our due diligence and not racing into decisions with the fear of missing out. There is a slice of the pie for everyone, but we have to be extremely cautious and patient. This isn’t a pair of shoes you’re buying!
People with the bigger cash reserves will continue to win in this market.
The less dependent you are on borrowing the better off you are. This is a no-brainer really but will really ring true in terms of winners in 2022. Earlier this year, it was reported that around 60% of first home buyers received help from their parents and that the average contribution was $90,000. This actually made mum and dad Australia’s ninth-largest mortgage lender, just behind Suncorp Bank.
Virtual buying will increase because of expats, immigration and sea and tree changers.
In 2020/21 we saw a sharp decline in auction results because people were really hesitant to buy online or virtually. Now that we have had time to adjust to the concept and this new normal, we will see an increase in virtual buying and online bidding and people being more comfortable to do so.
As mentioned above, virtual buying isn’t a new concept. It’s only been accelerated by the pandemic. It certainly won’t replace in-person auctions and inspections, but will be an added bonus.
With the proliferation of video, proptech and fintech platforms like Zoom, Whatsapp, AuctionNow, Facetime, Google Meet, DocuSign, PEXA, SignNow and Macquarie Auction DEFT Pay, there are now so many apps out there to facilitate ease of communication, which in turn have helped us buy ‘virtually’ with ease.
Sydney-specific trends
The rise of new Sydney hotspots.
Bexley, Belmore and Arncliffe have grown exponentially over the last year (30%+ growth). I predict these will continue to be just some of the Sydney hotspots in 2022. A contributing factor in the shift is that people are being pushed out of the Inner West due to higher price points.
Funky young couples and families will buy up big in these new hotspot areas. They are great areas for starter homes due to relatively good affordability. Another win-win is that with the upgrade of the metro line, the commute to the City will be around 20 mins shorter.
The new Western Sydney Airport is a good news story for buyers.
A lot of development around the new airport and other areas of new development will provide more affordable properties. This will mean that more supply will keep prices down so people will have more options to consider moving out further from the inner city suburbs.
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