Financial markets are pricing in a 9% chance the RBA will announce a cash rate cut when it hands down its December decision on Tuesday afternoon.

But that seems far better odds than commentators are giving.

A Reuters poll of 44 economists last week found all expected no change to the Australian cash rate this month.

Indeed, many analysts aren't expecting any move to the 4.35% cash rate until mid-2025.

Latest data not conducive to cash rate cut

That's despite Australia’s GDP growing at a sluggish annual rate of 0.8% as at the September quarter, below market expectations.

Though core inflation, last measured at 3.5% year-on-year, remains well above the RBA’s 2-3% target zone.

Falling national productivity shoulders some of the blame, with third-quarter data showing worker output continues to slide despite labour costs rising.

Employment figures have also remained relatively low which, in turn, fuels inflationary pressure.

When will the RBA cut rates?

Since the last RBA board meeting in early November, economists at NAB, Westpac, and ANZ have pushed out their forecasts of a cut to the cash rate to mid-next year.

Here’s when the big four banks are predicting the cash rate will drop:

Bank Forecast
ANZ May 2025
Commonwealth Bank February 2025
NAB June quarter 2025
Westpac May 2025

The RBA board will release its statement on its December monetary policy decision tomorrow at 2:30 pm AEDT with governor Michele Bullock to front a post-meeting media conference an hour later.

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LenderHome LoanInterest Rate Comparison Rate* Monthly Repayment Repayment type Rate Type Offset Redraw Ongoing Fees Upfront Fees Max LVR Lump Sum Repayment Additional Repayments Split Loan Option TagsFeaturesLinkComparePromoted ProductDisclosure
6.04% p.a.
6.08% p.a.
$3,011
Principal & Interest
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$530
90%
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5.99% p.a.
5.90% p.a.
$2,995
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$0
$0
80%
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6.09% p.a.
6.11% p.a.
$3,027
Principal & Interest
Variable
$0
$250
60%
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5.55% p.a.
6.05% p.a.
$2,855
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Fixed
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$350
70%
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Important Information and Comparison Rate Warning

Base criteria of: a $400,000 loan amount, variable, fixed, principal and interest (P&I) home loans with an LVR (loan-to-value) ratio of at least 80%. However, the ‘Compare Home Loans’ table allows for calculations to be made on variables as selected and input by the user. Some products will be marked as promoted, featured or sponsored and may appear prominently in the tables regardless of their attributes. All products will list the LVR with the product and rate which are clearly published on the product provider’s website. Monthly repayments, once the base criteria are altered by the user, will be based on the selected products’ advertised rates and determined by the loan amount, repayment type, loan term and LVR as input by the user/you. *The Comparison rate is based on a $150,000 loan over 25 years. Warning: this comparison rate is true only for this example and may not include all fees and charges. Different terms, fees or other loan amounts might result in a different comparison rate. Rates correct as of . View disclaimer.

Important Information and Comparison Rate Warning

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