After the excitement of last week when AMP took six month rates to market leading heights, the past few days have been a reality check for TD fans.

While the exact date they will occur remains up in the air, RBA rate cuts in the first half of this year appear to be all but assured.

Per the ASX RBA rate tracker, a 25 basis point cut is fully priced in by April based on trading activity and as of 16 January the market thinks there is a 73% chance rates are cut at the next meeting in February.

One key piece of data that will influence the February call is already in - Thursday's Labour Force figures for December showed unemployment ticked up to 4% at the end of last year.

In the most recent Statement on Monetary Policy, the RBA were projecting the unemployment rate to increase to 4.3% by the end of 2024 so it's still highly uncertain whether there will be a cut.

Nevertheless, with cuts expected before too long, the term deposit market looks odds on to continue cooling, although bold new against the grain hikes aren't impossible.

Here were the major rate changes from the week ending January 17.

Judo Bank vary rates up to 10 bps

Term length Deposit size Payment frequency Interest rate (Change)
Three months $1,000-$2,000,000 End of term 4.90% p.a. (-0.05)
Six months $1,000-$2,000,000 End of term 5.00% p.a. (-0.05)
Nine months $1,000-$2,000,000 End of term 4.95% p.a. (-0.10)
One year $1,000-$2,000,000 End of term 4.90% p.a. (-0.10)
Four/Five years $1,000-$2,000,000 End of term 4.50% p.a. (+0.05)

Judo's marquee term deposit products took another hit this week, with three month, nine month and one year terms all dropping below 5.00% p.a.

The six month rate remains Judo's strongest at 5.00% p.a., but that's now 0.15% lower than AMP where the top six month rate is 5.15% p.a.

Longer TDs though saw a slight uptick, with four and five year returns boosted 5 basis points.

Macquarie cut rates 10 bps

Term length Deposit size Payment frequency Interest rate (Change)
Three months $5,000-$1,000,000 End of term 4.75% p.a. (-0.10)
Four months $5,000-$1,000,000 End of term 4.65% p.a. (-0.10)
Six months $5,000-$1,000,000 End of term 4.65% p.a. (-0.10)
Nine months $5,000-$1,000,000 End of term 4.55% p.a. (-0.10)
One year $5,000-$1,000,000 End of term 4.50% p.a. (-0.10)

Macquarie Bank also cut back this week with 0.10% shaved off its products of one year terms or shorter.

For high rollers, Macquarie now has an advertised rate for deposits over $1,000,000, but it's significantly below the return on smaller deposits.

On one year terms for example, above $1 million earns 4.25% p.a. compared to 4.50% p.a. for investments of $1 million and under.

Other movers

  • Heartland Bank massively boosted one month rates, taking the return from 1.75% p.a to 4.10% p.a.
  • Hume Bank varied rates up to 35 bps including a new top rate of 4.75% p.a. on 100 day terms
  • Credit Union SA varied rates by up to 110 bps, including a new top rate of 4.90% p.a. for four month terms, equal to Judo's three month product.
  • Bank of Queensland cut rates 10 bps
  • ME Bank and Bank Australia vary rates up to 10 bps 

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