According to the CoreLogic Home Value Index (HVI), the national average dwelling price was pretty much unchanged through January, declining 0.03% to end the month at about $814,000.
The combined regional median price though, encompassing all the property in Australia not in the capitals, grew 0.4% to reach a new all time high of $656,000.
Regional SA (up 1.3%) and Regional WA (up 1.2%) were the brightest performers, with Regional Queensland and NSW also seeing price increases.
The headwinds came from the big cities, with Sydney (down -0.4%), Melbourne (-0.6%) and Canberra (-0.5%) all seeing prices decline, the combined capitals average dropped 0.2%.
Prices in Brisbane (up 0.3%), Perth (up 0.4%) and Adelaide (up 0.7%) are still going up, but in all three cities the quarterly growth rate has been declining for the past few months.
Hobart property values were unchanged through January, while Darwin saw prices go up 0.6%.
What to expect in 2025
The national HVI is now down 0.3% from the all time peak of October 2023, but CoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless believes it won't be long before prices start to pick back up again.
"Lower mortgage rates and a subsequent lift in borrowing capacity as well as an under supply of newly built housing could be setting the foundations for a relatively shallow housing downturn," Mr Lawless said.
However, he also said it still seems pretty unlikely there will be another major growth period in 2025.
"The easing cycle for interest rates is likely to be a gradual one and we also have the ongoing headwinds of affordability constraints."
Perth dwellings growing just 0.4% to start 2025 suggests the prolonged boom on the west coast might be over.
"In the June quarter of 2024, growth in Perth home values was 7.1%, easing back to just 1% in the three months to January," Mr Lawless said.
Top regional markets
While the pace of growth in regional markets has actually slowed over the past couple of months, in every state property prices are growing faster outside the capital.
"Regional markets seem to be benefitting from a second wind of internal migration, along with an affordability advantage in some markets and what looks to be some permanency in hybrid working arrangements across some occupations and industries," Mr Lawless said.
As of January '25, these were the ten Statistical Area 3s in Regional Australia with the highest 12 month property price growth:
| SA3 | SA4 | Median dwelling value | Annual change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mid West WA | Outback South (WA) | $448,000 | 30.1% |
| Townsville | Townsville (QLD) | $557,000 | 26.2% |
| Gladstone | Central Queensland | $541,000 | 25.7% |
| Wheat Belt North | Wheat Belt (WA) | $447,000 | 22.5% |
| Mackay | Mackay-Isaac-Whitsunday (QLD) | $586,000 | 21.8% |
| Charters Towers-Ayr-Ingham | Townsville (QLD) | $275,000 | 20.5% |
| Burnett | Wide Bay (QLD) | $429,000 | 20.2% |
| Central Highlands | Central Queensland | $323,000 | 19.8% |
| Yorke Peninsula | Barossa-Yorke-Mid North (SA) | $473,000 | 19.3% |
Picture by Martin David on Unsplash
Alex Brewster
